Amy Webb is an American world-renowned futurist and author. She works as a professor at the NYU Stern School of Business and is also a founder of the Future Today Institute, which focuses on emerging technologies at the fringes and tracks them as they move into the mainstream. Webb’s forecasts are often published in different media, such as The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, television channels, and so on. Webb’s work has received several awards and distinctions, such as the 2017 Thinkers50 RADAR Award and the Washington Post bestseller designation. (http://amywebb.io/bio).

How to act correctly when making forecasts

Her third book, The Signals Are Talking, was the first bestselling new book on Amazon and is the winner of the 2017 Axiom Business Book Award in Business Technology. In this book, Amy Webb shows us how to see and analyze real signals, their trends, directions, and velocity. Through a narrative approach based on storytelling, Webb shows us how to act correctly when making forecasts. She says that if we want to succeed in today’s and the future world, we have to forecast. Through proven and tested methodology, we can create our preferred futures.

At the beginning of the book, the author says that futures do not appear fully formed all at once but are always the result of a longer process that unfolds gradually. They do not emerge in the mainstream immediately but first appear at some points on the fringe of society. These points usually look unrelated or distant, but over time they fit into patterns, and then you can see the emerging trend. A trend moves into the future as a force shaped by human needs and technological development.

These signals that show a trend or a future trend are difficult to see or to find. Even when we see them, we may misinterpret them. The author demonstrates this misinterpretation with the example of Research in Motion (RIM) and its product Blackberry. The RIM company identified a new trend called “computer-like phone technology,” so they came up with a new product called Blackberry. Blackberry proved to be a successful project—everyone important had a Blackberry. RIM invested in developing Blackberry instead of exploring future conditions, future scenarios, and demand. They made a big and costly mistake: they misinterpreted the trend. The new trend was smartphones—computing in one device. They slept while it was still on the fringe of the mainstream.

The author says that our “reptile brains” often focus on more obvious things such as trendy topics rather than on how trends or technology are shaping our organizations and related areas. For example, our focus on flying cars, which is a trend of popular attention but not a real trend itself, does not tell us that in a few years we will all be travelling in cars. A real trend is technological development in transport, not necessarily represented by flying cars, and it will not necessarily end with building flying cars.

Six steps to help us create good foresight

Webb presents a method of six steps that help us build solid foresight. These steps are: “Find the fringe, Use CIPHER, Ask the right questions, Calculate the ETA (estimated trend arrival—the point where trends are along their trajectory), Create scenarios and strategies, and Pressure test.” She explains each one with examples.

The fringe is a space where people from different fields, such as scientists, technologists, or artists, test their hypotheses to achieve new findings. The fringe can be an idea or thought that looks bizarre, or even, as history has shown, ethically questionable, yet it can reveal new facts or a new potential future direction. A personal computer or a pocket-sized mobile phone could have seemed like madness or “mission impossible,” yet they still moved from the fringe to the mainstream. Not everyone is a fringe thinker, but this ability is necessary for forecasting. We need to think farther about the future.

After gathering all raw data, you have to categorize it into patterns and cipher it. The cipher is a tool that helps us see relationships and the direction of trends. You can find your own cipher, or you can follow the author in using six model-cipher indicators. Then you can analyze movement and relationships between patterns. This reveals more interesting facts that lead to the next step.

“Ask the right questions.” Dates and reality are changing. Are the trends you identify still truly trends? Are there any new trends? Have you considered them from different points of view? The author explains how to ask the right questions to improve our foresight.

After that, the focus shifts to the development of trends. Webb says trends develop along specific trajectories and speeds, which are not linear. If we want to succeed, we must recognize both aspects and know when to act. The author also presents a formula for calculating the right timing of a trend. This aspect is crucial and can make the difference between losing and winning, as shown in the example of two competing companies, Yahoo and Google. Yahoo, which had a ten-year head start and much more capital to improve and create new technologies, did not pay attention to timing. Google recognized the trend early and took action. Google entered the market with its technologies at the right time, when people were ready for them, while Yahoo was still waiting until it was too late. So Google won the rivalry.

When you have all the necessary information, you must formulate your foresight. For this purpose, the author recommends using “scenarios.” Yes, scenarios is a term borrowed from Hollywood. Scenarios, as in Hollywood, need to be easy to follow. It is proven that people relate more to storytelling than to lists of facts. So for our foresight we should use an if/then pattern. For example, if this happens, then we should do that. We should also work with scenario sets such as optimistic, pragmatic, pessimistic, and catastrophic because more scenarios can happen than only one.

After establishing scenarios, we must do one more step: pressure testing. So, as a conscientious foresighter, you should apply the F.U.T.U.R.E. test. Test your foresight against the criteria of Foundation, Unique, Track, Urgent, Recalibrate, and Extensible. For example, you should answer questions like: Do I have support from key stakeholders? Do I have enough time and money? Do I have the right strategy? (Foundation). Under Unique: does my action offer a unique proposition, and is it clear to my customers? For Track: will I have reliable data, and am I able to find and follow the trend and measure outcomes? Does my trend strategy communicate urgency? Recalibrate questions include: How will I evolve my strategy, how can I raise enough funding, or how can I plan a new strategy? How extensible is my trend strategy? Can it accommodate new trends easily? As an example, we can compare the Chinese bot Xiaoice and the American version Tay. Both were built as a teenage girl able to learn from us and converse through social networks. While Xiaoice worked very well in China, she was nice and polite; Tay in the United States presented herself as a very rude girl with terrible opinions. Why did this happen? Because of different local policy environments. Americans would have understood this if they had done their F.U.T.U.R.E. test. If they had answered the questions above, they would have identified where the mistake might have been.

Future is an endless cycle

What is very important is realizing that the future is an endless cycle. What happens in the future is being created right now. If we realize this, we can not only predict or forecast what will happen, but also take action to achieve our preferred future. In that sense, the future can be shaped by the way we act.

The author offers us a way by which we can all achieve the best possible form of a better future. The storytelling makes this book highly readable, and the inclusion of engaging examples makes it very instructive. The Signals Are Talking should be a very useful guide for every foresighter. Sometimes the book can be very descriptive for newcomers, but even if you are not a foresighter, the book may still be interesting and stimulating. It can show you ways to reach a desired future. At least it offers a different perspective on thinking about the future. So if you have a clear goal, this book can be helpful in realizing your preferred vision. Perhaps by publishing it, the author is taking a step toward her preferred future.

Author: Zuzana Valentová Student of FED Master’s program at Department of Development and Environmental Studies, Palacky university in Olomouc; http://studydevelopment.cz